Direct and Indirect Representation1

How can a constituency continue to receive targeted benefits even without a representative in the legislature? We provide a theoretical model to demonstrate why constituency groups linked to specific candidates would receive politicized government transfers even when the group loses its representative in the legislature. The model also suggests that the amount of transfers a group with a representative receives is increasing in the probability that the group can secure a legislative seat in next election. We test this claim using the changes in Japanese central-to-municipality transfers after a representative passes away while in office. We find that electorally “strong” constituency groups do not lose transfers when they lose their representatives. However, when “weak” constituency groups lose their representatives the transfers decrease by roughly 9 percent.